Disciplina Discipline PRI5081
O Caráter em Transição do Conflito: Conflitos na Zona Cinzenta
The Changing Character of Conflict: Conflict in the Gray Zone

Área de Concentração: 101131

Concentration area: 101131

Criação: 17/10/2024

Creation: 17/10/2024

Ativação: 17/10/2024

Activation: 17/10/2024

Nr. de Créditos: 8

Credits: 8

Carga Horária:

Workload:

Docente Responsável:

Professor:

Leandro Piquet Carneiro

Objetivos:

1 - Contextualizar o conflito contemporâneo: Analisar a evolução dos conflitos, desde o pós-Segunda Guerra Mundial até os cenários atuais, explorando a transição de conflitos entre grandes potências para novas formas de guerra, incluindo conflitos híbridos e na zona cinzenta. 2 - Expandir o conceito de conflito: Incluir novos domínios emergentes, como a guerra cibernética, econômica e de influência, além de novas ameaças híbridas, que desafiam os paradigmas tradicionais de segurança. 3 - Compreensão profunda do ambiente global de ameaças emergentes: Equipar os alunos com um entendimento profundo do ambiente de ameaças globais, abordando diferentes visões sobre conflitos, como a jihad radical, a doutrina de Guerra Irrestrita da China e a Doutrina Gerasimov da Rússia. Esses objetivos garantem que os graduandos possam avaliar e abordar criticamente a natureza multifacetada dos conflitos modernos, fundamentando suas análises e soluções em uma compreensão profunda dos contextos históricos, dos domínios emergentes de conflito e das dinâmicas de segurança global.

Objectives:

1- Understand the Historical Context Leading to Contemporary Conflict: This objective involves analyzing the evolution of conflict from historical perspectives, starting from post-World War II developments to present-day scenarios. Students will explore the shifts from traditional great power conflicts to new forms of warfare, including hybrid and gray zone conflicts. 2 - Broaden the Concept of Conflict to Include Emerging Domains and Modalities of Conflict: Students will study how globalization, digitization, and weaponization have created new conflict domains. These include cyber warfare, economic and financial warfare, influence operations, and hybrid threats. The course will delve into how these new modalities of conflict disrupt traditional political and security paradigms. 3 - Achieve a Nuanced Appreciation of the Emerging Global Threat Environment: This objective aims to equip students with a deep understanding of the complex global threat landscape. It includes examining differing worldviews on conflict, such as radical jihadist ideologies, China’s "Unrestricted Warfare" doctrine, and Russia’s "Gerasimov Doctrine." Students will learn to appreciate the strategic implications of these emerging threats and the challenges they pose to national and international security. These objectives ensure that graduates can critically assess and address the multifaceted nature of modern conflicts, grounding their analyses and solutions in a thorough understanding of historical contexts, emerging conflict domains, and global security dynamics.

Justificativa:

O estudo dos conflitos evoluiu significativamente desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial, inicialmente focado em evitar uma guerra nuclear, e agora abrangendo novas formas de conflitos no período pós-Guerra Fria. Esta disciplina aborda os desafios contemporâneos que surgiram devido à globalização, digitalização e a "armamentização" de diversos domínios, como a guerra cibernética, econômica e as operações de influência que ocorrem na "Zona Cinzenta" — um espaço em que atores estatais e não estatais operam abaixo do limiar da guerra convencional. Essas novas modalidades de conflito exigem um entendimento e respostas estratégicas complexas, e a disciplina visa explorar essas dinâmicas para oferecer aos alunos uma visão abrangente dos conflitos modernos e suas implicações para a segurança nacional e internacional.

Rationale:

The study of conflict has evolved significantly since World War II, focusing initially on avoiding nuclear war and shifting towards understanding new forms of conflict in the post-Cold War era. This course addresses contemporary challenges posed by globalization, digitization, and the weaponization of various domains, such as cyber warfare, economic warfare, and influence operations. These new modalities of conflict, often occurring in the "Gray Zone" below the threshold of conventional war, require nuanced understanding and strategic responses. The course will explore these dynamics, providing students with insights into the complexities of modern conflicts and their implications for national and international security.

Conteúdo:

1. Introdução ao programa da disciplina 2. O sistema internacional baseado em regras e a natureza contínua do conflito 3. A "cartilha" do Kremlin (The Kremlin Playbook) 4. A "cartilha" de Pequim (The Beijing Playbook) 5. A Jihad Global e o Terrorismo Internacional 6. Abordagens inovadoras para conflitos e guerra irregular 7. Informação, Desinformação e Influência 8. Guerra Econômica e Armamentização da Migração 9. Instituições, Ilhas e Homens Verdes (Institutions, Islands, and Little Green Men) 10. Apresentação final dos trabalhos de pesquisa dos alunos

Content:

1. Presentation of the Course Program 2. The Rules Based International System and The Enduring Nature of Conflict 3. The Kremlin Playbook 4. The Beijing Playbook 6. The Global Jihad and International Terrorism 7. Innovative Approaches to Conflict and Irregular Warfare (Introduction) 8. Information, Disinformation, and Influence 9. Economic Warfare and Weaponizing Migration 10. Institutions, Islands, and Little Green Men 11. Final Presentation of the student’s papers

Forma de Avaliação:

Ensaio (30%), atividades em sala (20%), trabalho final (30%) e apresentação do trabalho (20%)

Type of Assessment:

Essay (30%), workshop activities (20%), final paper (30%), and paper presentation (20%)

Observação:

O curso será ministrado em inglês.

Bibliografia:

Center for International and Strategic Studies. Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State. Available at: https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. COHEN, Ronald. Warfare and State Formation: Wars Make States and States Make Wars. In: FERGUSON, R. Brian (Ed.). Warfare, Culture, and Environment. Academic Press, 1984. Available at: http://www.columbia.edu/itc/anthropology/v3922/pdfs/cohen.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. CYBERSPACE SOLARIUM COMMISSION. Report: Executive Summary. Available at: https://www.solarium.gov/report. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. FRIDMAN, Ofer. On the Gerasimov Doctrine. Available at: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/prism/prism_8-2/PRISM_8-2_Fridman.pdf?ver=2019-09-17-231059-263. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. GERASIMOV, Valery. The Value of Science Is in the Foresight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations. Available at: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/military-review/archives/english/militaryreview_20160228_art008.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. HERZOG, Stephen. Revisiting the Estonian Cyber Attacks: Digital Threats and Multinational Responses. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26463926?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. HILL, Fiona; STENT, Angela. The World Putin Wants. Foreign Affairs, v. 101, n. 5, Sep./Oct. 2022. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. HUNTINGTON, Samuel P. Clash of Civilizations. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20045621?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. JONES, Seth G.; HARDING, Emily; DOXSEE, Catrina; HARRINGTON, Jake; McCABE, Riley. Competing Without Fighting: China’s Strategy of Political Warfare. CSIS, 2 Aug. 2023. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-08/230802_Jones_CompetingwithoutFighting.pdf?VersionId=Zb5B2Le0lf0kk7.QH7E0meA9phGqQEZf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. KANIA, Elsa. The PLA’s Latest Strategic Thinking on the Three Warfares. Available at: https://jamestown.org/program/the-plas-latest-strategic-thinking-on-the-three-warfares/. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. KRIESBERG, Louis. The Conflict Resolution Field: Origins, Growth, and Differentiation. Available at: https://lkriesbe.expressions.syr.edu/wp-content/uploads/2007-Conflict-Resolution-Field.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. KUSHNER, David. The Real Story of Stuxnet. Available at: https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-real-story-of-stuxnet. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. LACINA, Bethany. From Side-Show to Centre Stage: Civil Conflict After the Cold War. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26298596?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. LILLIS, Katie Bo. Newly declassified US intel claims Russia is laundering propaganda through unwitting Westerners. CNN Politics, 26 Aug. 2023. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/politics/us-intel-russia-propaganda/index.html?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mil-ebb&SToverlay=342f5a58-c37b-4142-b049-1f737335b507. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. MIKLAUCIC, Michael. Comprehensive Threat Meets Total Defense. Hungarian Defense Review, Budapest, Hungary, 2022. Available at: https://kiadvany.magyarhonvedseg.hu/index.php/honvszemle/article/view/924/867. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. OTA, Fumio. Sun Tzu in Contemporary Chinese Strategy. Available at: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-73/jfq-73_76-83_Ota.pdf?ver=2014-03-26-120732-250. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. PAPP, Daniel S. Russia and the World: The View from Moscow. Available at: https://digitalcommons.northgeorgia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=ijoss. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. QIAO, Liang; XIANGSUI, Wang. Unrestricted Warfare. 1999. Available at: https://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. RID, Thomas. Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation & Political Warfare. Available at: https://hiddenforces.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Active-Measures-The-Secret-History-of-Disinformation-Political-Warfare-Thomas-Rid.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. ROSSOMANDO, John. Know This: Hack Attacks are Acts of ‘Unrestricted Warfare’. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/know-hack-attacks-are-acts-%E2%80%98unrestricted-warfare%E2%80%99-185772. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. RUMER, Eugene. The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. TAMKIN, Stephanie. 10 years After the Landmark Attack on Estonia, Is the World Better Prepared for Cyber Threats? Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/27/10-years-after-the-landmark-attack-on-estonia-is-the-world-better-prepared-for-cyber-threats/. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. TOROSSIAN, Bianca; GORDER, Tara. Hybrid Conflict: Neither War nor Peace. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, Jan. 2020. Available at: https://hcss.nl/pub/2019/strategic-monitor-2019-2020/hybrid-conflict/. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE. Summary of the Irregular Warfare Annex to the National Defense Strategy, Washington, D.C. 2020. Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Oct/02/2002510472/-1/-1/0/Irregular-Warfare-Annex-to-the-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.PDF. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE. Forgery, Disinformation, Political Operations. Available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=807615. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023.

Bibliography:

Center for International and Strategic Studies. Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State. Available at: https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. COHEN, Ronald. Warfare and State Formation: Wars Make States and States Make Wars. In: FERGUSON, R. Brian (Ed.). Warfare, Culture, and Environment. Academic Press, 1984. Available at: http://www.columbia.edu/itc/anthropology/v3922/pdfs/cohen.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. CYBERSPACE SOLARIUM COMMISSION. Report: Executive Summary. Available at: https://www.solarium.gov/report. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. FRIDMAN, Ofer. On the Gerasimov Doctrine. Available at: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/prism/prism_8-2/PRISM_8-2_Fridman.pdf?ver=2019-09-17-231059-263. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. GERASIMOV, Valery. The Value of Science Is in the Foresight: New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations. Available at: https://www.armyupress.army.mil/portals/7/military-review/archives/english/militaryreview_20160228_art008.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. HERZOG, Stephen. Revisiting the Estonian Cyber Attacks: Digital Threats and Multinational Responses. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26463926?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. HILL, Fiona; STENT, Angela. The World Putin Wants. Foreign Affairs, v. 101, n. 5, Sep./Oct. 2022. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. HUNTINGTON, Samuel P. Clash of Civilizations. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20045621?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. JONES, Seth G.; HARDING, Emily; DOXSEE, Catrina; HARRINGTON, Jake; McCABE, Riley. Competing Without Fighting: China’s Strategy of Political Warfare. CSIS, 2 Aug. 2023. Available at: https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-08/230802_Jones_CompetingwithoutFighting.pdf?VersionId=Zb5B2Le0lf0kk7.QH7E0meA9phGqQEZf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. KANIA, Elsa. The PLA’s Latest Strategic Thinking on the Three Warfares. Available at: https://jamestown.org/program/the-plas-latest-strategic-thinking-on-the-three-warfares/. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. KRIESBERG, Louis. The Conflict Resolution Field: Origins, Growth, and Differentiation. Available at: https://lkriesbe.expressions.syr.edu/wp-content/uploads/2007-Conflict-Resolution-Field.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. KUSHNER, David. The Real Story of Stuxnet. Available at: https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-real-story-of-stuxnet. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. LACINA, Bethany. From Side-Show to Centre Stage: Civil Conflict After the Cold War. Available at: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26298596?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. LILLIS, Katie Bo. Newly declassified US intel claims Russia is laundering propaganda through unwitting Westerners. CNN Politics, 26 Aug. 2023. Available at: https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/politics/us-intel-russia-propaganda/index.html?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mil-ebb&SToverlay=342f5a58-c37b-4142-b049-1f737335b507. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. MIKLAUCIC, Michael. Comprehensive Threat Meets Total Defense. Hungarian Defense Review, Budapest, Hungary, 2022. Available at: https://kiadvany.magyarhonvedseg.hu/index.php/honvszemle/article/view/924/867. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. OTA, Fumio. Sun Tzu in Contemporary Chinese Strategy. Available at: https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-73/jfq-73_76-83_Ota.pdf?ver=2014-03-26-120732-250. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. PAPP, Daniel S. Russia and the World: The View from Moscow. Available at: https://digitalcommons.northgeorgia.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=ijoss. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. QIAO, Liang; XIANGSUI, Wang. Unrestricted Warfare. 1999. Available at: https://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. RID, Thomas. Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation & Political Warfare. Available at: https://hiddenforces.io/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Active-Measures-The-Secret-History-of-Disinformation-Political-Warfare-Thomas-Rid.pdf. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. ROSSOMANDO, John. Know This: Hack Attacks are Acts of ‘Unrestricted Warfare’. Available at: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/know-hack-attacks-are-acts-%E2%80%98unrestricted-warfare%E2%80%99-185772. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. RUMER, Eugene. The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action. Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. TAMKIN, Stephanie. 10 years After the Landmark Attack on Estonia, Is the World Better Prepared for Cyber Threats? Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/27/10-years-after-the-landmark-attack-on-estonia-is-the-world-better-prepared-for-cyber-threats/. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. TOROSSIAN, Bianca; GORDER, Tara. Hybrid Conflict: Neither War nor Peace. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, Jan. 2020. Available at: https://hcss.nl/pub/2019/strategic-monitor-2019-2020/hybrid-conflict/. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE. Summary of the Irregular Warfare Annex to the National Defense Strategy, Washington, D.C. 2020. Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Oct/02/2002510472/-1/-1/0/Irregular-Warfare-Annex-to-the-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.PDF. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023. UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE. Forgery, Disinformation, Political Operations. Available at: https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=807615. Accessed on: 10 Oct. 2023.

Tipo de oferecimento da disciplina:

Presencial

Class type:

Presencial